Rocky Mountain Rundown
Inside the Mind of The Gregapus
Rocky Mountain Rundown #12
Week 8 Power Rankings: Mid Season Awards and Playoff Simulation
We're finally at the point of the season where the sample size is real. The hot starts aren't flukes anymore. The slow starts are becoming harder to ignore. Every team has shown us enough to start forming an identity, whether that's as a contender, a pretender or something in between.
With the league approaching the halfway mark, it feels like the perfect time to take stock of where everything stands. Who would take home the major awards if the season ended today? Which teams have separated themselves from the pack? And if the playoffs started tomorrow, who would be left standing at the end?
Week 8 Power Rankings through Wednesday June 17th.
Rocky Mountain Rankings
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A’s –
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Astros –
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White Sox +1
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Royals +2
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Expos -2
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Mets +3
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Mariners -2
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Phillies -1
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Jays -1
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D Backs –
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Angels –
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Expos bats are holding them back. They scored nine runs in their first game of the season. In their last seven games combined? Just seven runs. Yikes.
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The Mets finally caught a break, winning back to back one run games. They're now 2-0 with Lock in the lineup, a trade that may have saved two seasons at once.
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The Mariners still haven't scored more than three runs in a game this season. What was once a quirky stat is starting to become a serious concern.
I decided not to include Reliever of the Year because it's still too difficult to determine who will ultimately qualify. The innings pitched leaderboard is extremely congested right now, and several pitchers who currently meet the eligibility requirements likely won't by the end of the season.
Current Winner reflects who would receive my vote today. Rankings reflect who I believe is most likely to win the award by season's end.
*Wednesday stats not included
Rookie of the Year
1- Ben Mutz (Current Winner)
.308/.438, .976, 2 HR 7 IP, .55 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
80% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +100
2- Jimmy Hallman
.217/.308, .786, 2 HR 3 IP, 6.67 ERA, 2.33 WHIP
19% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +1000
3- Erick Schules
.286/.324, .610, 30% SO rate
1% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +800
4- Flick Adams
.091/.259, .623, 2 HR
0% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +1400
5- Nick Liberio
.045/.087, .269, 1 HR
0% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +1800
Mutz has basically turned this into a one man race. Hallman still has a path, but he'll need more performances like he had against the A's while Mutz would need a few rough outings on the bump to shrink the gap.
4th Man of the Year
1- Adam Beyers
.167/.400, .567 1.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5.00 WHIP
40% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +200
2- Eddie Bleacher
.227/.227, .727, 2 HR
20% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +1400
3- Dylan Ayers (Current Winner)
.185/.382, .757, 2 HR
19% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +3000
4- Matt Haines
.143/.333, .762, 2 HR
19% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +1750
5- Flick Adams
.091/.259, .623, 2 HR
2 % chance to win award
Preseason odds: +1100
This one is tough, Beyers leads in OBP, Eddie in average and Haines in OPS. Ayers has shown the most improvement from last season and is 2nd in average, OBP and OPS. I’ll go with him for now.
Sliver Slugger
1- Zane Johnston (Current Winner)
.405/.500, 1.500, 7 HR, 15 RBI, 16% SO rate
25% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +500
2- Teddy Drecher (Current Winner)
.542/.656, 1.615, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 22% SO rate
20% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +700
3- Cam Farro
.400/.605, 1.525, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 24% SO rate
15% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +600
4- Brendan Boas
.417/.500, 1.542, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 36% SO rate
15% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +1000
5- Chris Durning
.421/.500, 1.342, 4HR, 12 RBI, 30% SO rate
10% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +2300
15% chance the award is won by someone not in the top 5
Just Missed the Cut
Dylan Harshaw
Tommy Loftus
Jack Liberio
Frankie Campanile
No one has fully separated from the pack. If Zane keeps hitting home runs at this pace he'll stay in front, but this award could change in a single week.
Cy Young
1- Dylan Harshaw (Current Winner)
29.2 IP, 1.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 68 K’s, 17 BB’s
30% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +600
2- Frankie Camp
11 IP, 1.09 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 23 K’s, 9 BB’s
20% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +5000
3- Brendan Boas
21 IP, 1.90 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 53 K’s, 18 BB’s
17.5% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +800
4- Jay Paul Volpone (Current Winner)
19 IP, 1.47 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 41 K’s, 9 BB’s
17.5% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +5000
5- Noah Silverman
20 IP, 2.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 47 K’s, 15 BB’s
10% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +500
5% chance the award is won by someone not in the top 5
Just Missed the Cut
John Polanco
Colin Pollag
Teddy Drecher
Nick Pollag
Harshaw gets the edge because of workload. Boas and Pone have been just as dominant, but Dylan has done it over nearly 30 innings. Frankie has looked the strongest but doesn't have the qualifying innings yet.
MVP
1- Dylan Harshaw (Current Winner)
.314/.478, 1.221, 5 HR, 12 RBI 29.2 IP, 1.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
20% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +1000
2- Brendan Boas (Current Winner)
.417/.500, 1.542, 5 HR, 11 RBI 21 IP, 1.90 ERA, 1.52 WHIP
20% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +800
3- Teddy Drecher
.542/.656, 1.615, 3 HR, 7 RBI 13 IP, 1.23 ERA, 2.00 WHIP
19% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +1400
4- Zane Johnston
.405/.500, 1.500, 7 HR, 15 RBI 22.2 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.85 WHIP
15% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +500
5- Frankie Camp
.292/.452, 1.243, 3 HR, 10 RBI 11 IP, 1.09 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
7.5% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +5000
6- Jack Liberio
.355/.487, 1.132, 3 HR, 5 RBI 20 IP, 2.71 ERA, 2.52 WHIP
7.5% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +2200
7- Colin Pollag
.292/.485, .777, 0 HR, 0 RBI 18 IP, 2.44 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
5% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +300
8- Cam Farro
.400/.605, 1.525, 4 HR, 7 RBI 10.1 IP, 5.81 ERA, 4.35 WHIP
5% chance to win award
Preseason odds: +900
1% chance the award is won by someone not in the top 8
Just Missed the Cut
Noah Silverman
Connor Warwick
Nate Smith
Tommy Loftus
Harshaw and Boas have carried contenders with elite production both at the plate and on the mound. Teddy has arguably been the best hitter in the league, while Zane continues to lead in home runs and RBI. The biggest question is how voters will balance dominance versus workload. If the season ended today I'd lean Dylan and Boas but this award is far from decided.
Playoff Simulation
*Wednesday games not included
Who’s out: Mariners, Diamondbacks, Angels
Play-in
#6 Mets vs #5 Expos
Expos win 2-1
Noah’s arm leads them into the playoffs
#8 Jays vs #7 Phillies
Phillies win 3-2
Phillies edge out the Jays but right now this seems like a true coin flip
#7 Phillies vs # 6 Mets
Mets win 2-1
Polanco has been underrated on the mound and Dennis is built for the playoffs
Quarters
#5 Expos vs #4 White Sox
Expos win game one 3-0
Sox win game two 5-2
Sox win game three 2-1
White Sox have the clear advantage in game two. Game three is a toss up but as of now I like the way the Sox have looked just a bit more
#6 Mets vs #3 Royals
Mets win game one 3-2
Mets win game two 5-4
Not overly impressed with the Royals so I’ll take the side of recency and say Mets handle this series.
Semis
#6 Mets vs #2 Astros
Astros win game one 4-1
Astros win game two 7-2
The Astros have been too dominant. The Teddy-Frankie combo is just too much to handle
#4 White Sox vs #1 Athletics
A’s win game one 5-2
Sox win game two 4-3
A’s win game three 2-1
Again I think the Sox have the advantage in game two but will bet on the veterans to grind out a game three win.
Chip
#2 Astros vs #1 Athletics
A’s win game one 3-2
Astros win game two 6-3
A’s win game three 5-3
I need to see these teams play again. Ask me in two days and I may take the Astros. I side with the A's because of their top three hitters, defense and veteran presence.
Awards races have a way of changing quickly. One hot week can turn an afterthought into a favorite and one bad stretch can erase an entire season's worth of momentum. The same goes for the playoff picture.
If the season ended today, this is how I think it would play out. The good news for everyone involved is that we're only halfway there.
The standings aren't final. The awards aren't decided. And every team still has time to become the version of itself we thought we'd see on draft night.
The second half starts now